D-Day for Delgado Draws Nigh, Marlins Not Storming the Beach

After wisely waiting for the finalization of any deal involving Carlos Beltran, Carlos Delgado's agent has stoked Delgadomania into full force. The daily baseball news wire has been ripe with every movement and sign from the Rangers, Orioles, Mets, and most importantly, Marlins making headlines somewhere.

The Fish flopped a 3 yr/35 million dollar offer on the table to start the feeding, but all three of the other courters seemed more than willing to call that, with the Rangers and Mets making their raises very public. Texas publicized a 4/$48 mil deal that Delgado has apparently rejected, which would strongly indicate that the Mets - unless Carlos values the comraderie of Beltran to a Batman & Robin degree - have made a better offer.

The Orioles and Marlins both appear to remain in the running -- in spirit, at the very least. Initially, Florida's prospects for landing Delgado seemed good, but if there's one other thing Baltimore and New York have demonstrated an ability to do aside from play .500 ball, its spend outrageous sums of money to get there.

The former Blue Jay is 33 years old and saw his OPS hit its lowest level since 1997 in 2004, as Delgado produced only 28% above average. Granted, that was still good enough to make him a solid contributor, but not the kind of player you would want to pay the $19,000,000 he had been making in Toronto.

Here's a gander at what Thin Carlos has been doing the last five years in the Great White North, using VORP (Value Over Replacement Player, meant to represent the number of runs a player contributes to a team above what a good AAA callup could do):

Year    Age    VORP

===    ===    ===

2000    28    114.3

2001    29    62.4

2002    30    62.6

2003    31    83.3

2004    32    41.4

A monster year in his age 28 season (where you would most expect to find it) followed by a pair of very good years, another monster year, and one of being merely very above average. Following a contract signed after the 2000 season, Delgado has made $13.65, $19.40, $18.70, and $19.70 million successively over the last four years.

Delgado's sub-standard 2004 season was most likely a fluke and we can expect a return to a 50+ VORP and the game's elite, but I can't help but feel that the Blue Jays General Manager, JP Riccardi, was intelligent to let Delgado go -- especially given the bidding war taking place. The Jays are in a similar economic market to South Florida, and they cannot afford to be taking on high risk long-term propositions like a four year contract that would see Carlos through his age 36 season. Whatever Delgado gets over the next two years, he is pretty much guaranteed not to be worth it come 2007 and 2008.

And believe me, it does nothing but bolster my feeling when I look up his stats on Baseball Reference and see that his most "similar batter" listed is Mo Vaughn, another monster slugger who dropped off the face of the earth following a disappointing age 32 season.

I would have liked to have had Delgado in Florida for two years, I could have bared to have had him for three. But four years would put the club in an untenable long-term situation (on top of the coming talent crisis I feel may be unavoidable anyhow).

I was going to go into this in a later post evaluating the Marlins lineup and offensive prowess, but given that I could wake up tomorrow seeing that Carlos has signed with the Orioles or, more likely, the Mets, I may as well mention it now. Delgado with the Fish would most likely mean a difference of 3-5 wins, assuming Conine finds himself in right field at Encarnacion's expense. In short, Delgado is likely the 2005 key to a potential wild card race in the NL East.

I'd wager that if it were not for Florida's interest in Delgado, the Mets would not be willing to break the luxury tax threshhold to acquire him. Appropriately so, the Mets are using their financial resources as a hammer to knock the Marlins away from gaining a distinct advantage in the NL East. It would probably suit the New York brass just fine to see Delgado wind up in Baltimore and serve as their albatross a few years from now.

If I may go off on a cosine for a moment, I'd like to note that I am not a salary cap proponent, but do feel that the gross inequity in team payrolls is a very, very, very bad thing for the sport of baseball. As evidenced by the past few years of spend-n'-lose management of teams like the aforementioned Orioles, Rangers, and Mets though, clearly payroll is not anything and everything. For the most part, smart teams will beat dumb teams, but anyone who denies that all else being equal money will and does tilt the balance is kidding themselves.

Take the Beltran situation as an example: It does not take a lot of brains to realize that Beltran is going to be a very good asset for the next several years. I would think the Kansas City Royals knew it, at the very least. But when a team has the advantage of collecting large amounts of economic rents in lieu of their geographic situation, they don't need to be particularly smart to reap the rewards that come with throwing money at the top players in the game.

Now, back on track. Should the Marlins acquire Delgado with a contract of similar length to what Tejas and the New York Baseball Mets are offering, they'll only continue to dig a hole that might make retaining both Beckett and Burnett impossible. But by the same token, the Fish don't want to resign themselves to mediocrity for the next two years when they are likely only one or two pieces away from being a capable Wild Card or NL East divisional crown contender.

Ah, the challenges of the baseball team general manager. Compounded ever more so by that team being the Florida Marlins.

The Marlins undoubtedly need some power at first or in the corner outfield positions - preferably from the left side of the plate - to make another playoff run. Delgado is the chief and possibly only free agent left capable of offering that. If four years is the only option, I might be inclined to let New York and/or Baltimore break the bank and try my luck elsewhere. It would simply be foolhardy of the Fish to continue signing 30-somethings to multi-year deals that sacrifice the potential signability of their younger stars.

Barring Delgado, the Fish may have to become a bit more subtle in their free agent maneuverings to aggregate the talent they'll need to hit the 85-90 win Wild Card threshhold. I'll follow up with what their options may be in a coming post.

Large Mouth Bass: The 2005 Starting Rotation

The Florida Marlins have a lot of issues that need to be talked about -- issues that most baseball fans would rather ignore. Unfortunately, sports exist at the intersection of business and emotion. Sometimes, bad business decisions are made out of a particular attachment to a player or concept that doesn't return the investment. Sometimes, good business decisions can break a devoted fan's hearts.

Any commentator who truly cares about the existance of baseball in South Florida cannot merely regard the onfield product, because that is precisely what is at stake here: existence. I would love to only be able to write of wins and losses, of trades and prospects. But I cannot. The Marlins franchise have supplied their fans these past twelve years with excitement and joy unmatched by most professional sports teams; they have also gutted their fans more often than any deserve.

To talk Miami baseball one must talk stadiums, government, contraction, relocation and the like.

But not today. Today we return to an earlier day of innocence and talk of wins and losses.

Last year I drew up a breakdown of the Florida Marlins roster from a Win Shares perspective. The final tally I came up with was 83-79 -- the exact final record the club finished with. Of course, coming off of a World Series victory I found that a bit disappointing. So I fudged it. Rather, I was optimistic in a few areas - most notably hoping for a healthy Josh Beckett and for Ramon Castro to turn his cup-of-coffee 40 at-bat performances into 400 at-bat season long mash-a-thons - and worked the record up to 89-73. Hey, wild card contention. I could live with that.

Today I begin the same experiment focusing on the starting rotation. Last year the Marlins hoped to break camp with a big five of Beckett, Burnett, Willis, Penny, and Pavano. Now, say what thou may about what the other big name rotations in Chicago and Oakland were like at the beginning of 2004, but I liked my odds with those five should they be healthy. Healthy being the operative word there. The aftermath of Burnett's Tommy John surgery from 2003 lingered over into 2004, so he was unable to pitch his first game until June 3rd. Reeling from that blow, the Marlins fished for a replacement, and hooked perennial underachiever Darren Oliver.

I would also like to note that the above sentence was undoubtedly the most pun-laden written in the history of baseball commentary.

Darren Oliver did just what Darren Oliver does and got shelled by opposing hitters. His 58.2 innings with the Fish stood witness to 13 homeruns and 75 hits against. If there is a consolation for the 6.44 ERA he put up with the Marlins, I guess it might be that his fielding independent pitching ERA was only 5.85. For those not in the know, FIP ERA is a quick n' dirty calculation that gives a similar result to DIPS ERA (Defense Independent Pitching Statistics). It's an attempt to isolate the defense behind a pitcher from his actual performance. The formula is (HR x 13 + BB x 3 - K x 2) / IP + 3.20.

But I'm not here to deconstruct Mr. Oliver. He didn't pitch too horribly, but the Fish could have easily promoted Tommy Phelps to the temporary starter role he would later serve in and put up better numbers. Anyhow, Oliver straddled between the starting job and the bullpen for the first half of the year before being traded to Houston.

Burnett made his return and, after a slightly rough start, began to hit on all cylinders. Unfortunately, at the same time Josh Beckett's lovely blister problem returned in full force, surprising nobody and benching him for quite a few starts. That led to a merry-go-round of "pitchers of the week," with Phelps getting a couple starts along with guys like Nate Bump, Michael Tejera, and A-baller Logan Kensing. Beckett eventually made his way back to the lineup, just in time for Brad Penny to be traded to the Los Angeles Dodgers of Los Angeles. In his place stepped Ismael Valdez, who will be the fifth spot for the 2005 Fish rotation.

Enough narration though, more rotation. When they were healthy the starting five did indeed pitch very well. Pavano had the best year of his career (at the prime age to do so) and is now one of the richer men in the City That Never Sleeps thanks to it. While they were Marlins, the starting slots logged the following Win Shares (win shares is a statistic discovered on the surface of Jupiter's moon Io, with each Win Share being the equivalent of 1/3 of a victory on the field):

Pitcher   WS    IP      WS/IP

===       ===   ===     ===

BIG DOGS

Pavano    20    222.3   .090

Willis    10    197.0   .051

Beckett    9    156.7   .057

Penny      8    131.3   .061

Burnett    7    120.0   .058

OTHERS

Valdez     3     56.0   .054

Oliver    -1     58.6  -.017

TOTAL     54     827.3  .065



*No other starters contributed anything beyond

what some sap out of AAA could have added.

The first thing one should notice about the 2004 roster is the number of pure innings-eaters the Marlins carried. Sure, Pavano putting up an ERA in the neighborhood of 3.00 is fantastic, but many would argue the 220+ IP is even more impressive. Willis has evolved into a reliable innings-eater, and Penny was a fantastic workhorse starter. The Marlins became more fragile in their 2003-2004 transition by letting Redman go, another solid innings guy, and the loss of Pavano and Penny will only further serve to expose the Fish to the risk of their bullpen seeing an increasing amount of action.

It should already be apparent that the success of the 2005 Florida Marlins will largely rest on the shoulders of Josh Beckett and AJ Burnett. If they go down, we can expect to see more spot starting from 5.00+ ERA guys. Now, a look at how the additions to the Marlins rotation did in their full 2004 seasons:

Pitcher   WS    IP      WS/IP

===       ===   ===     ===

Leiter     12   173.7   .069

Valdez      4   170.0   .024

Ismael Valdez is not exactly the belle of the ball, but he's proven capable of pitching around 180 innings without being criminally bad. Below average, yes. Darren Oliver, no.

Leiter put up his best performance in five years. Some of that is due to him being in a contract year, wherein 38 year old pitchers will occasionally work their butts off to land an $8 million check to play in the sun of South Florida. A good chunk of that is also due to being one of the luckiest pitchers in baseball when it came to batting average on balls in play. A far fewer of Leiter's balls in play fell for hits than the league average. Few - if any - pitchers have effective control of this, and Leiter will likely regress on that last count. I wouldn't pencil him in for either 180 innings or a 3.21 ERA.

Assuming the Marlins rotation put ups the exact same numbers they did last year - same injury problems for Beckett and Burnett, same performance on the mound - the rotation would bear out something like this:

Pitcher   WS    IP      WS/IP

===       ===   ===     ===

Leiter     12   173.7   .069

Willis     10   197.0   .051

Beckett     9   156.7   .057

Burnett     7   120.0   .058

Valdez      4   170.0   .024

TOTAL      42   817.4   .055

Significantly worse -- by a matter of four wins. Of course, you would expect that after losing one of the top pitcher performances in baseball with Pavano and adopting a replacement-level player in Valdez.

But this is likely not an accurate look at how the rotation will actually perform in the coming season. I don't expect Al Leiter to fall off of a cliff (though someone his age always has that possibility) but one must assume his BABIP to come back in line with his historical average. So we have to adjust his WS total down somewhat.

At the same time, AJ Burnett's injury was probably not indicative of a chronic problem. Tommy John's surgry has a good track record of returning players to continued active duty. Kerry Wood returned from his operation to become one of the most abused/utilized pitchers in baseball. So I think we can adjust his IP total a good deal higher.

Beckett is a difficult case. His performance in 2004 was probably not his true level of talent, and was the result of his season being disrupted repeatedly by blisters. So, one could find it fitting to assume that Josh will both pitch more innings and be more effective per inning. That, however, seems far too optimistic for a realistic projection. Rather, I'll assume that Beckett stays healthy for most of the season and pitches comparably to 2004.

Should Beckett and Burnett prove to be more durable pitchers, they will eliminate the greatest drag the Marlins suffered from last year: Spot starts from either scrubs or low-level prospects.

I'd like to note the sheer lunacy of attempting to promote Kensing from the Florida State League to the majors. Frankly, his sky-high ERA is the only reasonable expectation anyone should have had.

Here is how I forecast the actual starting five of the Florida Marlins pitching in 2005:

Pitcher   WS      IP      WS/IP

===       ===     ===     ===

Beckett   10.26   180.0   .057

Burnett   11.02   190.0   .058

Willis    10.20   200.0   .051

Leiter    10.20   170.0   .060

Valdez     4.08   170.0   .024

TOTAL     45.76   910.0   .050

We'll call this the "realistic projection," that the Florida Marlins pitching rotation will contribute 15.25 wins to the team. If I were to project them a bit more optimistically, I would raise the WS/IP for Beckett and Burnett and probably not regress Leiter so much. Those would be the breaks the Fish would have to get to be in playoff contention, but isn't that what winning is for a lot of teams? Getting the right breaks at the right time?

Certainly, much of what occurred in the 2003 World Series season would have to be chalked up to "getting the breaks." Willis, Cabrera, etc. Here's to hoping those breaks fall for two fabulously talented young guns in Beckett and Burnett.

Next up, the relief corps.