I Long For the Simpler Days of Benito Santiago

Paul Lo Duca signs three years, $18 million dollars.

The first thing I thought when I saw that was the first thing I thought when I heard of the Al Leiter signing, that a good chunk of change is going towards a player on the wrong side of his 30's in a position the Florida Marlins aren't particularly desperate to fill, with money that would be better spent on AJ Burnett and Josh Beckett. You know, those two young stud pitchers likely to be tearing up baseball in black pinstripes or red socks a couple of years down the road.

Yes, the Florida Marlins needed help at catcher last year. Mike Redmond is a decent bench player for six-digits a year and Ramon Castro was a bust of celestial proportions, but the same person who serves well in the role of a one-year fix is not necessarily the same person you want to lock up on the team for several years.

In short, Paul Lo Duca was okay as a one night stand. Now, the Fish have gone and married him. And that is a mistake.

As I'll probably note later, I thought the Choi/Penny for Mota/Lo Duca was a mistake at the time, but my primary concern was what it would do for the future of the franchise -- be it at first, on the mound, or behind the plate.

But, the purpose of today's entry is to take a look at the face we'll be waking up to every gameday or so for the next three years. My gut feeling is that face will be substantially less pretty with each passing day and each passing dollar.

Paul Lo Duca is already infamous for being Mr. April-to-July, wherein he tends to rank among the best catchers in baseball offensively. Over the last three years his splits have been as such:

Pre All-Star Break: .315/.371/.452/.823
Post All-Star Break: .236/.288/.334/.622

Now, I'm not much for making a very big deal out of a player's production during the month of August or his slugging tendencies with two men on base in the bottom of the fourth inning, but some players have demonstrated beyond a doubt that they are hot during certain parts of the year, and just plain cold during others. Lo Duca has that in spades, and there's no reason aside from blind optimism to expect that to change.

Having a catcher put up a .823 OPS is good, great, fantastic, and worth six million. But when the same catcher follows it up every year with a .622 OPS in the dog days of summer - and you can guess which one he would bring to the playoffs with him - he is clearly no longer worth the money. Lo Duca seems to have a reputation as being a good guy and a hard worker, and I applaud him for that. I just wouldn't pay six million a year for it.

All this being said, Lo Duca is not a scrub player even with his late season swan-songs. Especially when, like Paul DePodesta and the Los Angeles Dodgers of Los Angeles, you decide to flip him for a decent package of Choi/Penny at the trade deadline -- exactly when his he takes the plunge down the offensive charts.

Lo Duca would not be a bad one-term fix. But, one must keep in mind that he is at the ripe age of 32, and this contract takes him through his 35th year. 32-35 is not necessarily disasterous, but is historically the point where most catchers not named Ivan Rodriguez begin to/completely break down. Thus, the Marlins did not only overpay Lo Duca for his current production, but they likely overpaid him even more so for the next few years after that.

Of course, all baseball players must be evaluated relative to what the alternatives are. In Lo Duca vs. Redmond/Castro, Lo Duca does - and did - win. Add that to the fact that there have not been any substantial catching free agents out there recently, and you present two options for the Fish: Trade or promote. The trades for Urbina and Conine stripped the minor league system of most of the top tier talent that might attract another team to part with a hot catching prospect, so that leaves promotion as the only other option.

Matt Treanor was given his shot after putting up some good minor league numbers in his runs with the Florida AAA affiliated Calgary (2002) and Albuquerque (2003-2004) teams:

'02 Calgary: .284/.393/.400/.793
'03 Albuquerque: .273/.380/.441/.821
'04 Albuquerque: .258/.388/.419/.807
'04 Marlins: .236/.311/.273/.584

His Florida stats were disappointing, but they came in only 55 at-bats. I would not hope to see those earlier minor league numbers reproduced, however, as at the time he was 26, 27, and 28 respectively. Treanor was comparatively old for the Pacific Coast League. The older the player is, the greater the likelihood his performance will hit a brick wall next time you try to promote him. In short, Treanor is not the answer at catcher, though he's not much worse than Lo Duca post all-star game.

Josh Willingham is a different story. Drafted in 2000 out of the University of North Alabama, Willingham showed steady progress through short-season, low A, high A, and AA play. While batting with the Carolina Mudcats lin 2003, Willingham put up a .299/.434/.582/1.016 line. Hitting for average, good plate patience, and a good display of power -- as un-Mike Matheny-like as you can get.

Josh matched his 1.016 OPS in 2003 with a 1.014 OPS in 2004, also in Carolina. He saw brief action with the Marlins, where he posted a .630 OPS in 25 at-bats.

Baseball Prospectus recently revamped their minor league predictions, and now offer a line that attempts to forecast a players' numbers at the height of their production (which you would expect to see in the 26-28 age range). Just the range Willingham will be entering next year in his age 26 season.

They list his major league potential as being a full-time catcher with a line of .233/.378/.441/.819 (18 home runs, 72 base-on-balls, 86 strikeouts).

That .819 OPS is comparable to Lo Duca's at his peak time of the year, and eons ahead of his summer months. More importantly however, are these three simple facts:

1. Josh Willingham is 25. Twenty-five year olds tend to get better.
2. Josh Willingham has logged few days of Major League Baseball service. Remember, you're arbitration eligible after three years, and a free agent after six. Meaning that Willingham would be making peanuts until 2008 or so, and lower than his true value for another 2-3 years after that.
3. Josh Willingham's contract? If he's on the team, the league minimum. If he's on the 40-man roster but being stashed in New Mexico, even less than that. Opportunity cost of Lo Duca? $6 million a year. Opportunity cost of Willingham? Nuts.
   

The result of this very simple exercise is obvious: Paul Lo Duca is being paid $6 million a year to likely play inferior to a player the Florida Marlins could have for next to nothing for the next several years. And don't forget the premium of a long-term contract in the first place, that's $6 million that cannot be used to sign Beckett, Burnett, or any other free agent for each of the next three years.

It would have been wise to take Lo Duca to arbitration and keep him onboard for a year while trying out Willingham as a starter. That did not happen. Willingham will probably start next year in Albuquerque, mashing the ball as a 26-year old and attracting some interest from around the league. If he hammers the ball in spring training he may be given the bench job as backup catcher, but not to have him play everyday would be a waste for both the Fish and Willingham's development.

I would love to see the Marlins hold on to Lo Duca for a year, work in Willingham every couple of days while using him at first base to spell Jeff Conine and his shoulder, then flip Lo Duca ala DePodesta at the all-star break to some gullible team salivating over his first-half hitting. I doubt that will happen though.

In what may be an ironic twist, Willingham may simply end up smacking the ball around in the minors for far too long, just as Lo Duca did. It's interesting to think about this aspect of baseball; that players can be significantly affected in their pocket book and their development by general managers who let them beat up on AA and AAA pitching when they could be playing competitively in the majors. It's near criminal in regards to their financial deprivation. Johan Santana will likely be taking his anger out on the Minnesota Twins for the very same treatment upon his free agency.

It happened to Lo Duca, too. He tarred and feathered minor league pitchers until he was 29. The Marlins should do something with Josh Willingham, and I hope that "something" isn't "Trade him for relief pitching in August."

Willingham should be competing for a starting job on the Fish this year, and damn near have it promised to him in 2006 assuming he stays healthy and keeps hitting. His window of opportunity is now, and his best years are either here or right around the corner. This is what general managers are paid for. The Fish need to pull the trigger.